The housing market in France: an invisible bubble?
The clean of a bubble is usually to be found once it has erupted. So, like what they said during the outbreak of the 1984-90 real estate, professionals in the sectors concerned are continuing today to defend the absence of a bubble in real estate french. As always, of course, the arguments are excellent: low interest rates, strong demand for new housing, insufficient supply Supporters of the No for the veracity of the bubble have recently found an unexpected ally in the person of INSEE. In its latest note on the economic environment, it actually has not hesitated to publish two models that seem to rule out the existence of a
housing bubble in France, while adding, however, that their findings do not prejudge future developments in property prices. In other words, there may be no bubble, but
Without wishing posnemati these econometric work, which, according to the INSEE itself, are to be taken with tweezers, it seems appropriate to recall, however, a few realities. First of all it must designate a speculative bubble forming a cumulative gap and self-between the financial value of an asset and its value real. Thus, we can say that there is no housing bubble in France, if the 97% increase in property prices since 1998 due to rising real property and, more generally, to total in the French economy. However, the best approximation of the evolution of the latter is that of the Gross Domestic Product.
And it is here that things go bad. For if, in seven years, property prices have risen by almost 100% in France, GDP french value only increased by 25%. It is a ratio of one to four. Random or coincidence, this disturbing report corresponds almost exactly to those that prevailed from 1984 to 1990. During these seven years, real estate prices had actually increased by almost 200%, but GDP had increased in value by nearly 60%
realestate award. To be exact, the report is even more excessive today they were fifteen years ago.
In other words, with all due respect to some, we are now seeing a situation similar to that of the years 1984-90, in this case a gap excessive and self-sustaining between the value of real estate assets and the value of wealth . But would it not therefore is not within the definition of a bubble?
Moreover, even if the nominal interest rate and real are much lower than in 1990, the explosion of household debt, the increase in appropriations over periods of 25-30 years to individuals have little money and the weakness of the employment situation still fragile in the real estate market and, hence, that of the French
economy as a whole. And for good reason: for many households indebted to their maximum capacity, weak employment and purchasing power may force them to sell their homes, increasing the supply of mechanical properties, while the demand is tarît (given current rates). Such developments are bound to weigh obviously not on the decline on the way.
What is it going so we get here? Without wanting to break the mood or demoralize investors and individuals who appear increasingly cope with the soaring property, the return to reality is likely to be scathing. Indeed, insofar as there is no way to imagine an outbreak of 50% of GDP in recent years, the correlation between GDP in value and real estate prices in twenty years shows that they are well on a tray which they will inevitably go down.
For the coming months, real estate prices might still resist, and even appreciated slightly under a last baroud of honour, before suffering the torments of jobless growth, the household debt overhang and escalations interest rates in the long term. But the drama does not stop there, to the extent that no economy can emerge unscathed from a downturn lasting and significant
real estate courses. Good luck to all
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